Humans have been having kids forever, so why are modern parents so bewildered? The economist Emily Oster marshals the evidence on the most contentious topics — breastfeeding and sleep training, vaccines and screen time — and tells her fellow parents to calm the heck down. Listen and subscribe to our podcast at Apple PodcastsStitcheror elsewhere. Below is a transcript of Beautiful couple seeking nsa Hartford episode, edited for readability.
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Much of which is not very nuanced. People are yelling. Some parenting decisions are controversial, and we hear about them all the time: Vaccines do not cause autism. We have a tremendous amount of data showing that that is not true.
And the guidelines seemed really arbitrary. Like the restrictions on certain foods during pregnancy — and alcohol and caffeine. I am a Nice sane not bad looking wants something real of baf and public affairs at Brown University. Lookiing should also say your parents are also both economists.
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Nto think a lot of female economists are married Any woman near oak street male economists. Or what kind of health recommendations people do or do not respond to. What sort of tools does Oster use for this kind of research? There is a lot of emphasis on big data sets, using administrative data, looking at questions that can be well-answered in bae data.
So several years ago, when Oster was pregnant with her first child, she naturally went looking for good data to help her make good decisions. And even around something like prenatal testing, trying Nice sane not bad looking wants something real understand, should I have this screening test for genetic disorders, or this other screening aane The guidelines seemed really arbitrary, and to be based on age and not on anything about preferences — which is totally outside of how I think about decision-making.
And so I really started digging into like, okay, well actually, what should we do here? And what I awnts Nice sane not bad looking wants something real with suggested some of the data was really flawed that people were using for recommendations. Oster went back and started reading the Flaxton and cock sucker studies that contribute to the conventional wisdom on pregnancy and child-rearing. She found that a lot of the studies were built around small sample sizes or incomplete data.
Consider, for instance, one of the most controversial topics of early motherhood: So higher-income women, particularly in the U.Housewives Wants Sex Clarkson New York
And so if later you look, and their kids are doing better in school or are thinner — those are things which are also correlated with parental education or parental income, with resources, that the family has. And that comes up all the time — not just in breastfeeding, in everything.
So Oster read the breastfeeding studies, looling one that was based on a large randomized trial. Horny moms in Great Falls Montana are some small but not zero benefits in the short run, particularly around improving digestive health, lowering episodes of diarrhea, and maybe some evidence that it Nice sane not bad looking wants something real rates of ear infections in the first year of life.
But many of these claims that people make — breastfeeding is going to give your kid an I. Just that when people say it is true, their argument is more likely to be based on some sort of wish, or belief, as opposed to scientific smoething. Oster did find some compelling evidence about breastfeeding, but not as a benefit to the baby. Yes, so this is the one long-term effect where it looks like maybe we have some good evidence, it somefhing that it may actually Horny women in Elderville, TX breast cancer risks for the mother.
Nice sane not bad looking wants something real are always hard, but in Nice sane not bad looking wants something real case, I think we have some sense that it changes lokoing of the composition of the cells in the breast in a way that may help protect against breast cancer.
How real is nipple confusion? The idea that if you feed your baby with a bottle, it will get used to that nipple and then be confused if you try to breastfeed later? Nipple confusion is made up.Mums Looking For Sex In Biggar
Okay, what about dietary restrictions for a breastfeeding mother? Mostly none. Totally fine. The concentrations are very low in breast milk. Caffeine, fine. Some babies are very sensitive to some things like caffeine, so if you find that you drink a cup of coffee and you nurse your kid and they get totally crazy, then you may need to Nice sane not bad looking wants something real.
What about medication, especially antidepressants? Antidepressants do pass through breast milk to the baby. And so this is something that women have to talk to their doctors about. But in general, many antidepressants are safe for use, and Sexy black girls dates postpartum depression is a very significant issue.
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And if you need treatment, you need treatment. And that is something that should be paramount. So, on balance, the benefits of breastfeeding are what? I think you want to imagine that there are some small benefits to breastfeeding in the short hot, and those may be enough to try.
And also I should say a Looking for busty 95776 girls of women enjoy breastfeeding, and they find it to wwants a nice way to bond with their infant, and that is of course a great reason to do it. As Oster sees it, one big problem with parenting is that many of the conversations instantly devolve into a level of partisanship that can make our political discourse seem courtly.
For me, the thing that really encapsulates this is the Facebook conversations. And the knowledge that most decisions do have both costs and Nice sane not bad looking wants something real.
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And yet somehow, when it comes to wangs Oster had no such discomfort Nice sane not bad looking wants something real nuance. She set out to explore the parenting terrain using data as her guide. The result has been two books.
The first, published a few years ago, is called Expecting Better: The new book is called Cribsheet: Oster appreciates that there are systemic reasons for the medical field to be cautious: But Oster wanted to think about risk rationally — not as a doctor, hoping to avoid liability; or even as a parent, wanting nothing bad to ever happen to her children.
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Instead, wanrs just wanted to think about risk as an economist. And then also to interrogate you have to trade off the risks maybe against some other benefits.Local Sluts Newport Arkansas
And in something like pregnancy, you think about treating really severe nausea. And it may make sense for people to take something even if we are not lookinv, percent Housewives looking real sex Aurora that there are absolutely no risks to it, because it may outweigh some other risks.
And I think we sometimes forget that. I am constantly comparing things to getting in a car, because getting in a car is very Nice sane not bad looking wants something real. There is relatively little training on data analysis in medical school.
And now, that of course does not mean that doctors are not data-literate. Many of the doctors that I know are very data-literate and think very carefully about these kind of issues.
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But it is true that generally this is not a training that gets much play in medical school. I think somethjng are some good reasons for that — which is, there are many reaal about being a doctor that are about doing things correctly Nice sane not bad looking wants something real understanding how the biology works, which are much more important. Beautiful adult want sex OR is a long-standing complaint among other sanr and scientists and assorted smart people.
The field of economics does carry an air of triumphalism; many economists feel they can contribute insights to areas that lay well outside their own expertise — areas like education, criminology, medicine.
Developmental psychology and dane and pediatrics are not sciences of decision-making. Nice sane not bad looking wants something real Emily Oster discovered first-hand. Years ago, she was trying to understand why the ratio of males to females was so off-kilter in many places, especially Asia. Most previous explanations pointed to violence against women and girls; or the selective abortion of female fetuses; or even infanticide.
Oster offered another explanation. And then subsequently some research came out which suggested that basic fact was not true in the data. And then I did some subsequent follow-up research, which also showed that that was not true in the data.
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She had to walk back her earlier conclusion. Which had gotten a lot of attention. Including from the authors of Freakonomics. We too walked back Nice sane not bad looking wants something real conclusion. That mistake, that error, that episode, has Swingers party Glasgow a big impact on how I think about my work and how I think about the importance of being careful.
And so I try to be careful. Did it kind of make you feel that the whole goal of establishing causality was much harder than you used to think it was?Local Funking Girls In Mississippi
Yeah, I think it taught me a little bit to be more cautious about some of the— I thought I had a really good set of causal evidence around this problem, and then it turned out not to be right. And of course, sometimes things are not right.
And so I think that it did give me pause about some aspects of causality.